中文摘要：

本文利用农业部固定观察点数据和内生转置回归模型评价了劳动力外出对农业效率的影响,结果显示：劳动力外出提升了土地边际产出。不过,稳健性检验也发现,劳动力外出对农业效率的影响存在衰退效应,在劳动力外出前3年对农业产出的影响较大,3年后其影响出现了不同程度的递减。而通过追加化肥等投资来替代劳动,则是农户维持粮食生产、提升农业效率的主要途径。这要求我们在农村劳动力大规模转移趋势不可逆转的情况下,必须转变农业发展方式,通过培养职业农民、发展循环农业、建立生态补偿机制等途径实现农业可持续发展。

英文摘要：

Grain output has increased for the tenth consecutive year along with the large-scale migration of rural labor force,does migration make rural household less productive？ This paper use the RCRE data and Endogenous Switching Regression model to analyze the impact of migration on the agricultural efficiency. The results show that migration may improve the marginal output of land. But from the robust analysis,we also find that there may be a decaying effect of the migration on the agricultural efficiency. The effect was larger in the first three years after the migration,but declined gradually to a varying extent later. The main reasons to maintain the grain output may be that the rural households increase investment of chemical fertilizer to replace migrated labor force. We should promote the transformation of agricultural development pattern to realize sustainable agricultural development under the irreversible trend of labor migration by cultivating new peasants,developing circulative agriculture and constructing ecological compensation mechanism.