中文摘要：

技术结构和人口红利是影响出口的重要因素。文章基于省际比较的视角,通过对制造业出口大省江苏、浙江、广东1999~2013年面板数据的门限回归,研究发现：技术结构和人口红利对出口的作用受到技术结构门限的深刻影响,技术结构突破门限后,技术结构演进对出口的促进作用进一步凸显,低技能劳动力的作用逐步消弭,以专业技术人员占比衡量的高技能劳动力对出口的促进作用扩大了约1.5倍。技术结构演化增速不足、低技能劳动力作用式微、高技能劳动力作用没有充分发挥是突破技术结构门限后,限制各省出口增长的关键。因此,加速技术结构演化,推动＂人口红利＂向＂人才红利＂转型,是未来出口贸易的政策重点。

英文摘要：

Technical structure and demographic bonus are the important factors affecting exports. Based on the perspective of inter-provincial comparison, this paper uses the 1999-2013 panel data of the three manufacturing-exporting provinces： Jiangsu, Zhejiang and Guangdong with the method of thresholds regression. It finds that technical structure threshold significantly influences the effect of technical structure and demographic bonus on exports. When threshold is broken through, technical structure promotes the growth of exports, while the effect of low-skilled labor disappears. The high-skilled labor measured by technical staff rate highlights in promoting exports to nearly 1.5 times. The low growth efficiency of technical structure, the declining of low-skilled labor and the imperfection of high-skilled labor have become the main factors limiting the exports of these three provinces after threshold breakthrough. Therefore, accelerating the evolution of technical structure and promoting the transition from ＂demographic bonus＂ to ＂talent bonus＂ will be the focus of future export-trade policy.