中文摘要：

首先在成本水价基础上，分别构建塔河流域作物和流域基于水资源费的未来农业水价，然后进一步；E总和计算了塔河流域农户对基于资源环境水价的未来农业水价的承受力分析的基本指标；在此基础上，分析了塔河流域农户对基于资源环境水价的未来农业水价的承受力，主要结果表明：除叶尔羌河、和田河流域和干流下游基于资源环境水价的未来流域和作物水价的农户承受力超过适宜经济承受力外，其他源流和干流上中游的农户水价承受力则处于适宜经济承受力范围，未来塔河流域应当实行差别水价政策；干流下游、叶尔羌河流域未来农业水价承受力很低，尤其是流域未来粮食作物水价的承受力很低，必须给予粮食作物农业水价直接补偿。而且，环境水价对农户水价承受力影响较小，能够成为未来流域生态环境保护的主要经济手段。

英文摘要：

Based on the water price of the cost, the future agricultural water price on the basis of water resources fee and the future agricultural water price based on water resources fee and environmental water price are determined in the Tarim River Basin; then the basic index of farmers＂ carrying capacity of the future agricultural water price are calculated according to them, this paper analyzes the farmers＂ carrying capacity of the future agricultural water prices based on water resources fee and environmental water prices in the Tarim River Basin, the results indicate that besides farmers＇ carrying capacity of the future agricultural water price based on water re- sources fee and environmental water prices is beyond the suitable scope of farmers＂ carrying capacity in theYerqiang River Basin, He- tian River Basin and the low part of the Tarim River, the other basin is lower than the suitable scope of farmerg carrying capacity. The water policy should be carried out to use different water prices among different basins and their crops. The farmers＂ carrying ca- pacity in the Yerqiang River Basin and the low part of the Tarim River, especially their crop farmerg carrying capacity is the lowest, so more importance should be attached to the compensation of the future agricultural water price. Moreover, the influence of the en- vironmental water price on the farmerff carrying capacity of the future agricultural water price is very small. It is an important eco nomical means to use the environmental vector nrieo t,~ n,~nt~ot ＊1. ｜~-：~1 ： ~