中文摘要：

提出一种考虑风速随机特征的多工况电力系统稳定性分析方法。利用参数Weibull模型对短时间内条件风速趋势进行拟合预测,并将风速区间化,计算各区间的条件特征风速概率密度矩阵,再根据条件特征风速确定系统的运行工况。在此基础上,建立考虑风速随机特征的连续Markov多工况电力系统模型及其Lyapunov泛函,并在该泛函的弱无穷小算子中运用Dynkin引理,推导满足干扰衰减度γ的鲁棒随机稳定性的线性矩阵不等式（LMI）,并将其转化为可行性问题,以判断系统是否稳定。IEEE 4机11节点系统和16机68节点系统时域仿真结果表明,所提方法无需获取系统运行轨迹即可对多工况电力系统进行稳定性判别,与传统时域仿真法相比,降低了计算量,提高了判别效率。

英文摘要：

A method of stability analysis considering the time-varying wind speed is proposed for the power system with multiple operating conditions. The Weibull model is used to fit and predict the short- term wind speed trend ,the wind speed is divided into several intervals,and the probability density matrix of conditional wind speed is calculated for each interval,according to which,the operating condition of power system is determined. The continuous Markov model considering the time-varying wind speed is built for the power system with multiple operating conditions and its Lyapunov function is also set. The Dynkin lemma is applied to the weak infinitesimal operator of this function to deduce the LMI（Linear Matrix Inequalities） with the robust stochastic stability satisfying the interference decay rate y,the feasibility of which is then used to discriminate the system stability. The time-domain simulative results of IEEE 4-machine 11-bus system and 16-machine 68-bus system show：without the trajectory of system operation,the proposed method can discriminate the stability of power system with multiple operating conditions;compared with traditional time- domain simulation methods,it has lower computing load and higher discrimination efficiency.