中文摘要：

农业保险的险种设置和农业保险的产量承保水平是农业保险条款的重要内容，直接影响农户对农业保险的需求程度。以小波分析为基本研究方法确定江苏农作物的趋势产量，计算常见七种农作物的产量变异系数；以非参数核密度估计方法拟合江苏稻谷的亩产量。实证分析结果表明：从江苏的农业保险试点来看，试点的险种偏少，主要是稻谷和小麦，而这两个险种在整个种植业品种中风险程度不高，分别位于风险程度最弱的第一位和第三位。江苏稻谷亩产量达到赔偿标准为减产“70％以上”的可能性极小，这样的承保水平对农户参加农业保险没有足够的吸引力。

英文摘要：

The types of agricultural insurance and the coverage levels are important contents of an agricultural plan, and have direct impact on farmers＇ demand for agricultural insurance. The paper studied the trend of Jiangsu crop yield arrived at through the wavelet method and the yield coefficients of variation of seven kinds of common crops. Then the rice yield in Jiangsu is fitted by nonparametric kernel density estimation method. This exponential analysis indicated that the crop types of agricultural insurance pilot are quite limited, mainly rice and wheat. However,the de gree of risk of these two species is not high,which are listed in the last and the last but two of all species. In addition, the coverage level is ＂more than 70 percent＂ decrease in production which rarely happened in Jiangsu. Therefore,this coverage level was unattractive to farmers.