中文摘要：

近年来,渤海水环境污染日趋严重,无机氮是主要的污染因子,对无机氮水质稳定性的预测可为渤海水质站位优化和污染治理提供依据。本文以2002～2013年夏季无机氮趋势性监测数据为基础,用IDW和回归分析方法对无机氮各类水质发生概率进行预测,并计算2014～2016年无机氮水质稳定性概率,将渤海无机氮水质稳定性划分为高稳定性区域、中稳定性区域和低稳定性区域,为渤海无机氮监测站位布设和污染控制提供依据。

英文摘要：

The water pollution of Bohai Sea is more and more serious recently,and inorganic nitrogen is one of the main pollutants. Accurate stability prediction of inorganic nitrogen could provide an important base for optimizing the monitoring station and managing the marine pollution of Bohai Sea. In this paper,the probability of each type of inorganic nitrogen were predicted by IDW interpolation method and regression analysis method on the base of the trend monitoring data of the inorganic nitrogen from the year 2002 to 2013. The probability of the stability of inorganic nitrogen from the year 2014 to 2016 was also predicted,furthermore,the stability of inorganic nitrogen in Bohai Sea was divided into high,medium,and low zones,which could provide a scientific base for monitoring station layout and controlling the marine pollution of Bohai Sea.