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中文摘要：
本文基于区域暴雨数值预报模式AREM，针对2007年7月发生在四川地区的多次强降水过程进行数值试验，检验了NCEP和站点资料（STN）初始分析场资料预报结果，发现由于台站资料稀少，NCEP资料在四川地区的评分较高。讨论了四川盆地降水对初值的高度敏感性，揭示了四川盆地降水对初值中各个物理量场的不同敏感性，其中，降水对初值中湿度场的响应最为显著。初值不仅决定着降水的范围和强度，还对降水的发生时间产生明显影响。
英文摘要：
By using a regional model named AREM （ Advanced Regional Eta - coordinate Model）, which was developed by LASG/IAP/CAS, we have simulated and analyzed the heavy rainfall events happened over the Sichuan basin during July 2007. Verifying the predictions initialized with NCEP and the station data respectively shows that the NCEP - initialized has higher score than the other for the observed data in this area is scarce. The analyses reveal that the initial value is crucial to the heavy rainfall events over the Sichuan Basin ; not only the intensity, the coverage of heavy rainfall but also the time of maximum precipitation are highly sensitive to the initial value. The sensitivity of every physical quantity field is also discussed in this paper. The initial humidity field has the most obvious influence among them.
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A new analytical model for thermal stresses in multi-phase materials and lifetime prediction methods
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