“7·30”大停电暴露出印度在电源发展、电网发展、网架结构、体制管理、一次能源、环保约束、市场经济、信息技术等方面给电力系统可靠性埋下的隐患及在停电灾难中的推波助澜。这些因素像物理电网的输电阻塞一样,影响供电充裕性和安全性,不妨称为广义阻塞。各参与方藉此谋取利益的博弈又往往加剧这些广义阻塞。从这个视角反思印度停电灾难的必然性、实际触发事件的偶然性,以及停电演化过程的内在规律;研讨对中国的启示;探索中国减少大停电风险的措施;指出坚强智能电网在保障大能源安全与环境安全中的作用。
India's potential power reliability fiazards in aspects like generation planning, transmission planning, grid infrastructure, management system, primary energy, environmental constraint, market economy and information technology, which together aggravate the power disaster, have been revealed by the “7 · 30” blackout. These factors, which influence the power supply adequacy and security in a similar manner as transmission congestion does, can be called by a generic term as generalized congestions. Different participants' attempts to benefit from multi-gaming by utilizing generalized congestions, will in turn aggravate congestions. From this perspective, the inevitability of India's power disaster, occasionality of trigger event and inherent evolution law of blackout are reflected, the enlightenment on China's power industry is discussed, and blackout risk control measures are explored in this paper. The positive role of strong smart grid in ensuring energy and environment security is highlighted.