2016年,中国银行业在"三去一降一补"的政策大背景下,不仅需要面对全球资本市场和货币政策的不确定性,还要应对国内结构性调整带来的一系列影响。利好与利空交织,机遇与风险并存。银行资产负债表迅速扩张,但盈利能力有所减弱,净息差大幅收窄,非利息收入占比创新高,不良贷款率超去年但呈现企稳迹象。中国银行业当前面临的主要问题有:中型银行大量购买投资产品抬升隐形信贷风险,个人按揭贷款放量激增增加了集中度风险,部分地方政府解救僵尸企业的行为恐使银行利益受损,银行抽贷断贷行为影响到企业正常经营并抬高了民间融资利率。因此,我们建议加强对中小银行表外业务和中间业务的监管,加强房地产信贷的压力测试和风险管控,对产能过剩企业要防范信用风险和流动性风险。
In 2016, in the supply-side reform policy background China's banking industry had to not only face with the uncertainties of global capital market and monetary policy, but also had to deal with a series of influences brought by domestic structural adjustment. Good and bad intertwined, opportunities and risks coexist. Banks' balance sheet expanded rapidly, but profitability weakened, net interest margin narrowed sharply, the proportion of non-interest income reached a new high, the NPL ratio exceeded last year but showed signs of stabilization. At present, the main problem is that mediumsized banks bought a large number of investment products to increase the invisible credit risk, personal mortgage loans increased a lot to increase concentration risk, the behavior of part of local government to save zombie Enterprises to damage the interests of banks, the behavior of banks to stop lending affects the normal operation of enterprises and raise the rate of private financing. We suggest to strengthen the supervision and management of off-balance sheet business and intermediate business in the small and medium-sized banks, strengthen credit stress testing and risk control of the real estate, guard against credit risk and liquidity risk of overcapacity enterprises.