中文摘要：

本文基于中国31个省市1979—2012年的数据,采用动态空间杜宾模型,实证分析转型期中国省际经济波动对经济增长的空间溢出效应及其形成机制,得出结论如下：经济波动在淘汰本地区低效率投资项目和企业、优化投资结构、从而对本地区经济增长产生正向直接效应的基础上,因受中国地区间激烈竞争和产业同构的影响,会吸引邻近地区的优质资源,对这些地区的投资结构产生不利影响,进而对经济增长产生负向空间溢出效应。并且,从动态视角的检验发现,相比于短期,两种效应在长期的作用更大。本文关于经济波动对经济增长空间溢出效应的研究对于解释中国经济波动与经济增长的关系机理,以及对于区域经济协同发展、加快国内市场一体化相关政策的制定具有重要意义。

英文摘要：

Based on Chinese provincial panel data in 1979--2012, this paper uses the Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model to examine the spatial spillover effect of Chinese provincial economic volatility on economic growth during the transition period. This paper draws the following conclusions： Economic volatility eliminates this region＇s low efficiency investment projects and enterprises, optimizes the investment structure, and thus has a positive direct effect on the economic growth of this region. On this base, under the background of fierce competition and industrial isomorphism between different regions of china, economic volatility attracts the high quality resources in neighbouring areas, has a negative impact on the investment structure of other regions, and thus generates a negative spatial spillover effect on the economic growth in other regions. And, from the dynamic perspective, this paper finds that compared to the short term, these two effects play greater roles in the long run. This study is of great significance to explain the relationship between economic volatility and economic growth in China and to formulate the relevant policies for the coordinated development of regional economy.