中文摘要：

以淮河南岸最大支流——淠河流域为研究区域,采用嵌套入ArcGIS软件的SWAT分布式机理性水文模型定量评估土地利用变化对降水-径流关系的影响.结果表明,1996-2010年淠河流域的土地利用变化主要表现为水田、旱地向建设用地转化以及林地向园地转化.相较于1996年的土地利用情景,2010年土地利用情景下的多年平均径流增加5.87％,年径流的增加主要表现为汛期径流增加,非汛期径流则呈减少趋势,径流量年内变幅加大.对于不同水文年份而言,平水年对土地利用变化的水文响应最明显,变幅最大,枯水年则略大于丰水年,淠河流域的水源涵养能力呈现减退趋势.

英文摘要：

The Pi River,the largest tributary of the Huai River on its southern bank,was selected as subject for study to quantitatively evaluate effects of changes in land use on relationship between rainfall and surface runoff,using the SWAT （soil and water assessment tool） distributed mechanism hydrological model.The change in land use during the years of 1996-2010 was mainly reflected in conversion of upland fields and paddy fields into construction land,and of forestland into gardens.Comparison of 2010 with 1996 shows that the former was 5.87％ higher than the latter in annual runoff,and the increase was mainly observed in runoff during the flooding season,while during the non-flooding season,a declining trend was observed,thus expanding amplitude of the fluctuation of runoff within a year.Annual runoff differed from year to year.In normal hydrological years,the response to changes in land use was the most significant and the greatest in amplitude.The response was greater in dry years than in flooding years.The results show that the water conservation capacity of the Pi River Valley is obviously on the decline.