采用人工神经网络方法对内蒙古某风电场10台风机的输出功率进行了预测研究。分别利用不同输入变量和网络结构的4种网络模型进行了预测分析,发现采用风速、风向和温度作为输入变量,4-8-1型的网络结构,预测精度较高,平均绝对误差小于250 kW,正规化均方根误差小于5%。
The artificial neural network based wind power prediction method was employed to predict the output power of 10 wind turbines of a wind farm in Inner Mongolia.Four models with different inputs and net structures were used to perform the wind power prediction.It was found that the model with the 4-8-1 net structure and using wind speeds,wind directions,and temperature as inputs exhibits the best prediction accuracy with the mean absolute error less than 250 kW and the normalized root mean square error less than 5 percent.