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中文摘要：
木浆是中国进出口贸易中一种重要的原料型林产品。近年来中国木浆进口数量迅速增长,对外依存度逐年提高。本文从供给和需求的角度进行定性分析,探究影响中国木浆进口量增长的因素,并在此基础上建立多元时间序列的实证模型,通过定量分析方法确定进口量变化的主要影响因素及其作用大小。结果表明：废纸进口、国际木浆价格、国际木浆总产量、实际国民生产总值、人民币实际汇率对进口量的影响最为显著。据此提出相应的政策建议。
英文摘要：
Wood pulp is an important raw material of forest products in China＇ s import and export trade. China＇ s wood pulp imports have increased rapidly in the recent years and the dependence on foreign trades has gradually in- creased annually. Based on the qualitative analysis from aspects of demand and supply, this paper explores the influ- encing factors which affected the growth of China＇s wood pulp imports, and establishes the empirical model of mul- tivariate time series to definite the main influencing factors and their roles in quantity size. The result shows that： re- covered paper imports, international wood pulp prices, the international wood pulp production, real GDP, the real exchange rate of RMB are most significant factors. Then this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recom-mendations.
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