对1986—2007年北京市农业用水情况和影响其变化的相关指标进行主成分分析。结果表明:农作物播种面积、有效灌溉面积、种植业总产量、养殖业总产量和参考作物腾发量五大指标所代表的面积、产量、气候三大因素对北京市农业用水影响的贡献率依次为44.1%、35.2%和17.1%。具体分析各因素,发现近20年北京市农业用水量的降低主要是因为农作物播种面积和有效灌溉面积缩小,节水灌溉面积扩大以及节水技术进步;种植业单位产量用水量的减少,使农业用水量降低;种、养业等用水比例变化趋向合理,有利于北京市节水型农业结构的发展;但目前北京市参考作物腾发量呈上升趋势,将加大农业灌溉用水压力。
Study on the trend of agricultural water consumption and its influence factors is very important for the future work of saving water in Beijing. In this paper, the trend of the gross agricultural water consumption from 1986 to 2007 was analyzed. Influence factors were selected by using the principal component analysis. The result indicated that area, production and climate were the three major factors which influenced the changing of agricultural water consumption. The three factors covered five indicators including crop sown area, effective irrigation area, planting production, live-stock production and reference evapotranspiration. Through detailed analysis of the three factors, it has been found that the decreasing of agricultural water consumption was mainly caused by the decreasing of crop sown area and effective irrigation area, and the increasing of water-saving irrigation area and the progress of water-saving technologies in the past 20 years. The decreasing of water consumption to per unit crop production is helpful to the reduction of agricultural water consumption, and the reasonable change of the proportion of water used by planting and husbandry is conducive to the development of water-saving agriculture. The increasing of reference evapotranspiration is not conducive to reduce the amount of irrigation water.