中文摘要：

根据风险评估理论,以灾害发生概率、种植面积和单产减产率分别作为危险性、暴露性和易损性指标,对黑龙江省水稻低温灾害风险进行评估.选取28个地面气象站1971-2012年气温资料和11个地市1986-2011年水稻单产和种植面积数据,运用自然灾害风险指数法、概率统计等方法,建立以危险性、暴露性、易损性为风险构成因素的风险评价模型,计算3个因素的大小并绘制危险性和易损性区划图.运用GIS技术计算黑龙江省水稻低温灾害综合风险等级,绘制低温灾害风险区划图.大兴安岭地区、黑河西北部、齐齐哈尔、伊春、双鸭山、哈尔滨为轻微风险区,南部、西北、东北为低风险区,中部、北部、绥化为中风险区,鸡西、佳木斯、鹤岗的部分区域为高风险区.评价结果对于正确认识黑龙江省水稻低温冷害的风险水平及制定水稻种植规划和防灾减灾有参考意义.

英文摘要：

The assessment and regionalization of rice chilling risk in Heilongjiang Province was conducted based on the theory of natural disasters risk assessment and using the probability of chilling disaster, cultivated rice acreage and yield reduction rate of per unit area yield as the three factors of hazard, exposure and vulnerability re- spectively. 28 surface weather stations＇ temperature from 1971 to 2012 and 11 cities＇ rice area and per unit area yield from 1986 to 2011 are selected, and natural disaster risk index, mathematical, probabilistic and GIS methods are used to build the risk model which consists of hazard, exposure and vulnerability. The size of the hazard, expo- sure and vulnerability is calculated and the maps of hazard and vulnerability are drawn. At last, the risk degree of rice chilling in Heilongjiang is assessed and its map of regionalization is drawn. The risk degree of Daxing＇ anling, northwestern Heihe, Qiqihar, Yichun, Harbin and Shuangyashan is slight; the south, northwest and northeast of Heilongjiang low ; the middle and north of Heilongjiang and Suihua moderate ; part of Jixi, Jiamusi, Hegang high. It would provide scientific references in accurately understanding the risk level of rice chilling in Heilongjiang Prov- ince, planning the rice-planting and preventing and mitigating the rice chilling risks.