中文摘要：

从配送服务的作业流程出发，给出了配送服务可靠性的定义；分析了配送服务可靠性的主要影响因素；运用马尔科夫过程的有关理论，提出了一种基于向量马尔科夫链的配送服务可靠性预测方法，预测了短期内配送服务及其各作业流程的可靠性，得出了平稳状态下的配送服务及其各业务流程的可靠性；并应用算例对该方法进行了验证．为配送中心评价和提高自身服务的可靠性水平提供了理论依据．

英文摘要：

From the starting of the process of distribution service, the reliability of distribution service is given, and the influence factors of reliability of distribution service are analyzed. By applying the theory of Markov process, a forecast method of reliability of distribution service based on vector Markov chain is presented; The short-term reliabilities of distribution service and its operations are forecasted, and the reliabilities of distribution service and its operations are obtained when the distribution center operates steadily. The proposed method is verified by a numerical example. The theoretic basis is provided to the distribution center that wants to evaluate and improve service level.