中文摘要：

将城市扩展数量管控、土地差别化管控及土地利用分区管控等多个政策方案，嵌入元胞自动机的转换规则中，进行耦合管控效应的城市空间多情景模拟与政策分析。研究结果表明：①在城市扩展过程中，伴随着生态用地面积锐减、建设用地利用效率低下及土地利用结构不合理等风险，政策管控有利于缓解上述问题；②土地政策不能扭转景观破碎化及复杂化加剧的现象，但可以抑制其趋势；③多政策同时使用可以在保护优势斑块方面产生协同效应，其效果优于单独使用三种政策，但在遏制景观破碎化和复杂化方面不能发挥单一政策所具有的最大生态效应；④土地政策的优先级为：数量管控→分区管控→差别化管控。

英文摘要：

The temporal and spatial evolution of urban expansion is a complicated dynamic system, and it is very important to master law of this evolution in land management and urban development planning. Traditional simulation of land use change focused more on the development law of land use space, and but less on the analysis of land regulation mechanism.The evaluation of land policy was mostly carried out by selecting characteristic index to analyze the situation prior and subsequent to policy implementation, with the demerits of time lag and small application scope. The combination of urban cellular automata and land policy evaluation is to estimate and predict the effectiveness of land use change, and to identify the risk of ecological damage. This paper attempts to simulate multi-scenario and conduct an analysis of the policy of urban space under the effects of coupling and control by embedding into the transitional rules of cellular automata the following schemes, namely quantitative management of urban expansion, differential handling of land, and zoning treatment of land use. Then logistic regression method to mining city spatial development inertia is employed and a model basing on multi policy compound control is constructed to simulate the planning period of future urban construction of Jiangxia. Finally, the result is compared with the prediction of each single control.