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中文摘要：
为研究三种模式的供应链对交货率影响的系统行为,将系统动力学方法引入供应链系统行为研究中。根据三种模式供应链的特点,分别建立了系统动力学模型,然后以交货率作为研究对象,在相同参数、市场扰动和政策改变等情况下进行了系统行为的仿真对比分析。结果表明,推式供应链的交货稳定性最差,只有通过改变订货周期才可以提高交货率;拉式供应链对市场的响应表现在整条供应链上最敏感,可以通过改变订货周期或改变目标库存的方式来提高交货率;推拉结合式供应链的优势表现在对最终用户的交货率上,只有通过改变供应商的订货周期才能改变整条供应链的交货率。
英文摘要：
To study the system behavior of influence on delivery ratio exerted by supply chain with different modes,a new method-Systems Dynamics（SD） was introduced into the analysis of supply chain＇s behaviors.Three SD models were set up according to various supply chains＇ characteristics,and then taking delivery ratio as the object,the simulations of three models were performed under the circumstances of the same parameters,market disturbances and policy shift,respectively.Results indicated：push-supply chain＇s delivery was the most unstable,and only through adjusting order cycle time,could its delivery ratio be increased.For pull-supply chain,its response to market was the most sensitive in the whole supply chain,and its delivery ratio could be increased by adjusting order cycle time or changing target inventory.The strong point of push pull-supply chain was its stable and high delivery ratio to the last customers,and its delivery ratio could be increased only by adjusting the suppliers＇ order cycle time.
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