中文摘要：

利用夏威夷大学IPRC高分辨率区域气候模式，对西北太平洋热带主要气旋活动季节（6-10月）热带气旋活动的特征及其大尺度环境场进行了17年的模拟试验，检验了模式对西北太平洋热带气旋的潜在季节预测能力。试验结果表明，该模式对西北太平洋热带气旋大尺度环境场具有较好的刻画能力，模拟的热带气旋年生成频数与实况的相关系数为0．77，季节内各月生成频数相关系数为0．82，显示出良好的潜在预测能力；生成源地分布与实况较一致；总能量（PDI）的年际变化趋势模拟也较为理想。但模拟的路径频数在南海地区明显偏多，北上热带气旋偏少。最大风速的峰值区间模拟效果较蒡。

英文摘要：

Potential monthly predictability on Northwestern Pacific tropical cyclones （TCs） activities for the season （June-October） and associated large scale environment conditions were evaluated by utilizing the International Pacific Research Center （IPRC） high-resolution regional climate model （IPRC-RegCM） and the results show that the IPRC model exhibited good skill in simulating the associated large-scale environmental conditions. The correlation coefficients of the annual and monthly TC genesis numbers （within the season） are separately 0.77 and 0.82 between the simulation and observation, which show a good potential predictability. The simulated distribution of TC genesis positions is in accordance with the observation and the interannual trend of PDI simulation is satisfactory. But the simulated occurrence is obviously more than the observed one in the South China Sea. Fewer TCs move towards to the north than those in the observation. And the simulated peak value section of the maximum speeds is not as good as the observation.