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中文摘要：
文章基于局部均衡COMPAS模型，从产业层面上分析了两岸经济合作框架协议（ECFA）影响两岸特定行业的产出、就业、贸易等经济活动的内在机理。基于近年来两岸农产品生产与贸易的相关数据，就ECFA对两岸农产品生产和贸易的影响大小进行了模拟分析，结果表明：由于两岸农产品在产品品质与上市时间等方面存在较大差异，建立ECFA对大陆和台湾农产品生产的冲击都非常有限；ECFA的建立将极大地推动两岸农产品贸易，台湾农产品对大陆出口大约会增加14％，大陆农产品对台湾出口大约会增加17％。
英文摘要：
Based on the recently-developed Commercial Policy Analysis System （COMPAS） model, this paper analyzes how ECFA between the Mainland and Taiwan would affect the production, employment and export flows of the two parties at the industrial level. Since the cross-strait agricultural products vary in type and quality, the impacts of the establishment of ECFA on both the mainland and Taiwan＇s agricultural production are very limited. As the import tariffs of cross-strait agricultural products are high, the establishment of ECFA will greatly promote the cross-strait trade of agricultural products. Taiwan＇s agricultural product export to the mainland and the mainland＇s agricultural product export to Taiwan will increase by about 14% and 17% respectively.
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