中文摘要：

本文根据世界旅游组织编写的《Compendium of tourism statistics》等相关资料，系统分析了1993年以来澜沧江-湄公河次区域人境旅游人数发展状况和各国所处地位，并使用移动平均模型对2010年和2015年进行预测，揭示了次区域国际旅游发展态势与前景。所得结论为：（1）次区域旅游发展迅速，且有很大的提升空间，但各国国际旅游水平相差很大；（2）云南省国际旅游水平处于中等地位，且有下降的可能。据此，本文对次区域和云南省国际旅游发展提出相关建议。

英文摘要：

Based on the international tourism passengers in all the countries or areas, the paper analyses the developing state of the international tourism passengers in Lantsang- Mekong hypo-region. Then, the paper forecasts the international tourism passengers in 2010 and 2015 in the hypo-region using moving average model. The results are： （1） since the Lantsang-Mekong hypo-region cooperated, the tourism has developed to a certainty, the international tourism passengers in 2003 is twice compare to the international tourism passengers in 1993; the gap between the levels of the international tourism in all the countries or areas is large, some countries drop behind, so the countries or areas should strengthen cooperation, for the common development of the hypo-region; （3） looking at the result in the forecast, the increasing trend of the international tourism passengers is obvious, tourism has big lifting space; the countries and areas in the hypo-region compete with each other, their status in the international tourism of the hypo-region may change, for example, looking at the forecasted data in 2010 and 2015, Yunnan province may be exceeded by Cambodia, which can be included to that the international tourism in Yunnan has some disadvantage factors, we should regard this problem. The results in the paper may provide some useful references for the development of the hypo-region.