中文摘要：

提出了一种基于短期负荷预测的变压器目标节能控制方法，将短期负荷预测引入变压器经济运行实时控制，采用基于加权平均的日周期多点外推法的短期负荷预测方法，通过负荷预测得到未来24 h内的负荷曲线，利用目标节能函数求出节约电量，以此值确定变压器投退控制策略。避免负荷波动而带来不必要调整。在降低变压器综合功率损耗的同时，也提高了操作的安全性和可靠性。用Matlab仿真证明了该方法用于变压器经济运行控制的正确性和可行性。

英文摘要：

A new method of target saving energy control for power transformer is proposed based on short-term load forecast. Short-term load forecast is introduced into the real-time control for economical operation of transformer. By adopting short-term load forecast method based on the weighted average diurnal period multi-spot extrapolated, load curve in the future 24 hours are obtained through the load forecast, the saved electric quantity is calculated by target saving energy function, the control strategy of transformer operation is confirmed according to the saved electric quantity. Unnecessary adjustments brought by the undulation of load are avoided. The method reduces the synthesis power loss of transformer, simultaneity, also improves the security and the reliability of transformer operation.