中文摘要：

区域水文要素复杂性研究是当今的热点问题，为了研究哈尔滨地区汛期径流量的复杂性特征及变化趋势，将R／S分析法和等概率粗粒化LZC算法引入到区域径流复杂性分析与变化趋势预测中，对地区内10个水文站点的汛期径流序列的复杂性进行诊断并对其变化趋势进行分析。研究结果表明：哈尔滨、通河、阿城、依兰、烟囱山各站未来的汛期径流量呈减少趋势，岔林河、莲花、西北河、延寿、四平山各站未来的汛期径流量呈增长趋势；各站点汛期径流序列的复杂度由高到低依次为：四平山、烟囱山、岔林河、阿城、西北河、依兰、莲花、通河、哈尔滨、延寿；从河流集水面积对其径流长程相关性和复杂性的影响可以看出，站点的河流集水面积越大，其径流量的长程相关性越强，复杂性指数越小。研究成果揭示了本地区汛期径流量的变化趋势以及复杂性演变特征，该特征可为区域径流预测及水资源优化配置提供科学依据。

英文摘要：

Regional hydrological complexity is a hot issue today, in order to analyze the variation trend and complexity of the runoff in flood season in Harbin area, in this paper, R/S analysis method and equal probability coarse graining LZC algorithm were introduced into the analysis of regional runoff complexity and the forecast for the variation trend of regional runoff. Taking Harbin region as an example, the complexity of the runoff sequences from ten hydrological stations in flood season in this region was diagnosed, and the variation trend of the runoff sequences was analyzed. The results show that for the trend of the runoff in future flood reason, those from the hydrological station of Harbin, Tonghe, Acheng, Yilan and Yancongshan will increase, those from the hydrological station of Chaling- he, Lianhua, Xibeihe, Yanshou and Sipingshan will decrease. The high-to-low order of the complexity of the runoff sequences of hydrological stations in flood season is Sipingshan station, Xibeihe station, Chalinghe station, Acheng station, Lianhua station, Yilan station, Yancongshan station, Tonghe station, Harbin station, Yanshou station. This paper summarizes the influence of river＇s catchment area on the long-range correlation and complexity of runoff, that is, the larger the catchment area, the stronger the long-range correlation of the runoff, and the smaller the complexity index. The research results reveal the variation trend of runoff volume and evolu- tion characteristics of its complexity of the region in flood season, and which will provide scientific basis for regional runoff forecast and water resources optimal allocation.