中文摘要：

采用国际应用系统分析研究所的“牲畜和粮食产量动态模型”，模拟出2000—2030年间中国粮食和牲畜的数量和需求量的地理分布，然后应用GAINS模型预测我国未来农业N2O排放量。结果显示，2000年我国农业N2O排放量为1533kt N2O，到2030年将增加到2000kt N2O左右，增长31％；农田N2O排放占农业N2O总排放量的80％，2030年农田N2O的排放量比2000年增长37％。由于活动水平数据的模拟结果不同，各情景的N2O排放量不同，其中INMIC_低情景中N2O的排放量稍高于中、高排放情景。我国农业N2O排放主要集中在山东、河南、四川、河北，江苏、湖南、云南、安徽等省，到2030年，黑龙江、内蒙古、新疆、云南和湖南五省的N2O增加量在30kt N2O以上。硝化抑制剂作为N2O的减排措施，从2015年开始实施，减排效率由4％上升到16％。采用IPCC默认排放因子会高估我国农田N2O排放。

英文摘要：

The livestock and crop production model developed at IIASA generates geographic distribution of demand and production of crops and livestock products, for a time horizon of 30 years from 2000 to 2030 with 5-year time step. Activity data derived from this model were uploaded to GAINS model to simulate agricultural N2O emissions in China. The results show that agricultural N2O emissions will rise from 1533 to 2000kt N2O by 2030, with an increase of 31%. N2O emissions from cropland account for 80% of the total agricultural N2O, with an increase of 37% from 2000 to 2030. Emissions from INMIC_low scenario are a little higher than high and central scenarios, because the projections of activity data are different. Agricultural N2O emissions are centralized in Shandong, Henan, Sichuan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Hunan, Yunnan and Anhui. By 2030, the increases of agricultural N2O emissions are more than 30kt N2O in Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Yunnan and Hunan. As a mitigation measure, nitrogen inhibitors which are implemented in 2015 will allow reducing agricultural N2O emissions by 4% to 16%. Applying IPCC default emission factors will overestimate N2O from cropland.