中文摘要：

利用东江流域主要气象及水文站点1956-2000年气温、降雨及天然径流量时间序列,采用Mann-Kendall秩次相关法检验了流域各季节及年均气温、降雨等气候要素及天然径流量的变化趋势,分析了流域气候变化特征。并利用相关分析法分析了流域气温和降水与径流的相关性,对未来50年该流域径流量的变化趋势进行了预测。结果表明：流域年均气温总体呈显著增加趋势,而年均降雨量和径流总量变化趋势不显著;全流域降雨与径流为正相关,相关系数为0.928,气温与径流为负相关,相关系数为-0.017,说明降雨与径流的关系更为密切,其在流域径流量的变化中起着主要作用。此外,剧烈的人类活动也使得这些相关性更为复杂。

英文摘要：

Based on the temperature,rainfall and natural runoff data on the main meteorological and tidal observatory station from 1956 to 2000,change trend on annual temperature,rainfall and natural runoff can be found with Kendall rank second relevant law,characteristics of climate change on the basin is analyzed.The relevance of the temperature and precipitation with runoff can be drew with the relevant analysis method and change trend of runoff in the coming 50 years in the basin is forecasted,the results shows： average annual temperature is in a significantly increasing trend,whereas average annual rainfall and total runoff are in no significant trend.The relation between rainfall and runoff is positively mutual with the mutuality rate 0.928 while the relation between temperature and runoff is negatively mutual with the mutuality rate-0.017.It cnn said that the rainfall plays a predominant role in the change of total runoff in the East River basin.In addition,severe impact of human activities makes these relations more complicated.