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中文摘要：
为研究供应链中各因素对供应链运营造成的影响，提出了一种基于故障树分析法的供应链可靠性诊断方法。该方法以供应商、制造商和分销商组成的三级供应链为研究对象，分析供应链失效的原因，借鉴机器零部件失效诊断分析的方法，运用故障树分析法的原理，将供应链诊断这一抽象问题予以具体化处理，建立供应链失效诊断的一般模型。针对模型的复杂性特点，采取蒙特卡罗仿真的方法，求解相关可靠性指标和诊断关键因素。仿真实例验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。
英文摘要：
To study the influence on the supply chain operation exerted by each factor in supply chain, an approach based on Fault Tree Analysis （FTA） was developed for diagnosing supply chain reliability. In this method, threetier supply chain made up of supplier, manufacturer and distribution dealer were taken as the object, reasons for supply chain failure were analyzed. Borrowing ideas from fault diagnosis method of machinery parts to embody the abstract problem in the supply chain, its failure model was constructed with the theory of FTA. To deal with its complexity, simulation of Monte Carlo method was used to solve its interrelated reliability indexes and diagnose crucial factors. Simulation example was presented to prove the method＇s feasibility and validity.
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