中文摘要：

为科学评价预测长江上游珍稀特有鱼类保护区水文情势变化特征,以长江上游珍稀特有鱼类保护区内的屏山、朱沱和寸滩3个水文站的实测逐日流量序列为基础,采用基于32个IHA指标的RVA方法,分析保护区水文情势的自然特征和不同历史时期的变化情况。并通过梯级水库联合调度运行模拟,研究金沙江下游梯级水库运行后保护区未来的水文情势变化。研究表明：上世纪80年代之前保护区的水文变化比较稳定;1990年后保护区水文情势变化有所增加;金沙江梯级水库运行后保护区屏山站的水文变化加剧,但朱沱和寸滩站的水文变化不大,显示保护区支流水量汇入显著减缓了水库调度对保护区中下游河段水文情势的影响。

英文摘要：

To forecast and evaluate the flow regime change in the Upper Reaches Yangtze River Rare and Endemic Fishes National Reserve,the natural features of flow regime and hydrological changes in different periods from 1940 to 2011 were evaluated based the observed daily flow sequence of Pingshan,Zhutuo and Cuntan gauges in the Reserve,by using the＂Range of Variability Approach＂（ RVA） approach based on the 32 Indicators of Hydrologic Alteration（ IHA）. The postregulation flow,which was obtained through cascade dams joint operation simulation in the Lower Jinsha River,was used to assess the future hydrological alteration of the reserve. The results showed stable hydrological change in the reserve before 1990,a relative increasing hydrological change in 1990—2011,and a significant increase in hydrological alteration at Pingshan gauge,but little increase in hydrological alteration at Zhutuo and Cuntan gauges after the cascade dams operation in the Lower Jinsha River,which indicated flow from the tributaries played key role in mitigating the impacts of dams operation on the middle and lower river sections in the reserve.