中文摘要：

针对含大规模风电场的电力系统的可用输电能力（available transfer capability，ATC）进行研究，首先基于连续潮流法，提出了线性预测关键约束的改进算法，并引入到交流潮流模型中形成扩展潮流方程求解电力系统确定性ATC，且推导了电力系统ATC对风电等节点的注入功率波动的灵敏度快速估算模型。在此基础上，结合风电并网系统的多维可视化注入功率空间，提出了一种采用分层类聚算法划分蒙特卡罗抽样样本，综合考虑发电机随机故障、线路随机故障、风电场风速、发电机出力和负荷波动等多种不确定因素的概率ATC快速计算方法，最后通过算例分析验证了该算法的快速有效性。

英文摘要：

The paper mainly studied the available transfer capability in power system including large-scale wind farms. Based on continuation power flow, an improved algorithm of the key constraint by linear prediction was proposed to obtain deterministic ATC with the expansion power flow equation, and the node injection power fluctuation sensitivity of ATC was derived for fast estimation. Then on the basis of above analysis, with the help of the visual power injection space of power system including large-scale wind farms, the paper proposed a probabilistic ATC fast calculation method using Monte Carlo simulation and hierarchical clustering algorithm which taken many kinds of uncertain factors into considerations, such as the wind speed of wind farm, generator random failure, transmission line random failure, the fluctuation of generator output power and load. Finally a case study demonstrated the validity and superiority of method proposed in this paper.