中文摘要：

丹江口水库北调水量受水源区入库径流量变化、受水区需水量变化以及丹江口水库下游社会经济活动等众多不确定因素的影响。采用Thomas-tiering月径流随机模拟技术、动态规划模型和可靠度分析理论，建立丹江口水库北调水量不确定性分析模型，对北调水量的不确定性、可靠度和缺水风险进行定量分析与计算，为水资源调配和南水北调工程水资源的风险管理提供技术依据和参考。

英文摘要：

Reservoirs play a very important role in water relocation; the amount of water supply in the future is not only associated with reservoirs＇ volume, but also with other factors, such as reservoir inflow, evaporation, water release for downstream, regulation rule, strategies etc.. What are the main factors and how those factors influence the outcome of water supply are that this paper is trying to make out. The work of uncertainty in res-ervoir distribution system is illustrated by Danjiangkou Reservoir, which is the water sources for the South-to-North Water Transfer Project in China. Effects of uncertainty of inflow and water demand of downstream in future are examined quantitatively. Stochastic simulation model is used to simulate reservoir inflow, and water demand of downstream in future will be very carefully considered by setting different scenarios of water demand according to the social development and strategic forecast. Model of reservoir regulation is developed based on the fixed rules and priority of water supply; and the uncertainty of the two main factors is finally integrated to assess the uncertainty of water transfer by reservoir in the future. The stochastic process technique and reliability theory are used to achieve those goals.