基于云南省近年来大范围持久性干旱的反思,分析云南省旱灾管理现状,借鉴国内外成功的旱灾风险管理实践经验,提出了推行云南省旱灾风险管理的必要性和可行性。并以风险管理理论为基础,将旱灾风险识别、风险评估、损失评估、风险决策与控制4个步骤为主线贯穿旱灾风险管理过程,构建了云南省旱灾风险管理框架。通过鱼骨图分析,从自然环境、社会经济2个类别识别判断影响云南省旱灾风险的10个因子。从风险管理理念、制度体系、预警与调度系统、科技支撑水平、应急水源和应急服务及灾后补偿保障6个方面提出了云南省旱灾风险管理行动对策,为云南省建立长效的抗旱减灾管理机制提供了重要建议。
This research presented the necessity and feasibility of the drought disaster risk management in Yunnan Province, which was based on the reflection of widespread and persistent drought in recent years of Yunnan Province and analysis of the drought disaster management status of Yunnan Province, and the learning from practi- cal experience of drought disaster risk management from home and abroad. Then based on risk management theory, the framework of the drought disaster risk management in Yunnan Province has been built, which was mainly included four steps of the drought disaster risk management process, such as drought disaster risk identification, risk assessment, damage assessment, risk decision-making and control. Through the fisbbone diagram analysis, it identified those ten factors affecting the risk of drought disaster in Yunnan Province from the natural environment and soeio-eeonomic categories. Finally, the operational adaptive strategies of the drought disaster risk management in Yunnan Province has been suggested from six aspects, which include awareness of risk management, institutional system, early warning and scheduling system, the level of scientific and technological support, emergency water and emergency services, and post-disaster compensation protection.