中文摘要：

本文在传统的土地资源人口承载力基础上发展了货币型人口承载力研究。运用系统动力学模型仿真了呼和浩特市未来十几年不同社会经济情景下的土地资源人口承载力变化,得出中方案相对较优方案。与此同时,本文以全国和内蒙古自治区作为参照区域,分析了相对资源承载力,分别与SD模型预测的值比较,得出呼和浩特市未来十几年的发展态势。到2020年,以内蒙古自治区作为参照区域对比研究的相对资源承载力为517.30万人口;以全国作为参照区域对比研究的相对资源承载力为1388.52万人口;以系统动力学方法来研究的中方案的小康型综合人口承载力为1104.4万人口。呼和浩特市的发展高于内蒙古自治区的发展水平,愈来愈接近全国平均发展水平,这符合呼和浩特市未来发展趋势。

英文摘要：

The currency carrying capacity research was developed on the traditional land carrying capacity foundation.Land carrying capacity change in Huhhot has initially appraised by SD model,the relative carrying capacity plan after the synthesis distinction analysis was obtained refering to the nation and the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region achievement.The relative carrying capacity was analyzed,and compared with the SD model separately,the future development situations were obtaind.Refers to the region the carrying capacity would be 517.3×104 persons in 2020;Refers to the state the relative carrying capacity would be 1338.52×104 persons;The synthesis carrying capacity drawn by the systems dynamics method would be 1104.4×104 persons.In the future,the Huhhot development will be higher than development level of Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region,and increasingly close to the national average level of development.