中文摘要：

以耕地占补平衡制度实施为背景，引入弹性力学理论，探究了耕地的系统特征及其弹性变化理论，并以中国为例开展了实证。研究表明：（1）耕地系统的自组织特性决定了其弹性特征，并在不同应力条件下弹性变化具阶段性；（2）应用耕地弹性变形判别系数和判断规则对各省份分析后认为，浙江、福建、云南、贵州、陕西、北京、广东、广西等地维持长期耕地系统稳定性难度大，而新疆、内蒙古、黑龙江等后备资源丰富省区则可保持较高的系统稳定性；（3）2010年、2056年为我国耕地弹性变形阶段、塑性变形阶段和非稳定态变形阶段划分的时间节点。研究有助于警示我国应强化耕地资源量质保护和空间管制，促进社会经济和生态持续发展。

英文摘要：

Based on the background of the cultivated land＇ s inevitable decrease and the mandatory implemen- tation of ＂Dynamic Balance of Total Amount of Cultivated Land ＂ policy, this paper induced the elastic distortion theory to explore the lands＇ elastic characteristics of different change stages, and taking China as an example to carry out an empirical study. The reasuh shows that： 1 ） Cultivated land has self-organization natural economy sys- tems feature, which make its significant flexible variation charcter possible and its stages under different stress con- ditions. 2） Taking provinces of China and Based on the elasto-plastic discriminant factor and the stages decision- making rules, this paper distinguish Zhejiang, Fujian, Yunnan, Guizhou, Shanxi, Beijing, Guangdong, Guangxi as the categories that difficult to maintain long-term stability of its cultivated land system, but to cultivated land of those who rich in cultivated land reserve resources,such as Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, Heilongjiang, can expect a long-term stability. 3 ） As to the elastic deformation stage division of cultivated land of China,it is the elas- tic deformation stage by 2010, followed by plastic deformation stage from 2010 to 2056 ,then it will be the instable deformation stage if no measures are taken. The study will help alert and strengthen our land resources protection and space control to promote the sustainable development of economy, society and ecology in China.