中文摘要：

为研究南方红壤坡耕地典型小流域气候变化特征对潜在蒸散的影响 ,采用小波分析法和Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法以及Penman-Monteith方法 ,计算并分析1953-2013年小流域平均气温和降水序列的趋势、周期、突变性特征以及1990-2013年潜在蒸散的变化特征、受气候因子的影响情况.结果表明 ,近60 a年来小流域平均气温和降水都呈上升趋势 ,且平均气温变化显著 ;降水变化存在4、11、22和29 a的变化主周期 ;平均气温在1994年突变 ,降水在1988、2003、2010均有突变 ;1990-2013年潜在蒸散呈微弱上升趋势 ,且雨季后期蒸散量大于雨季前期 ,在2011年左右发生突变 ;潜在蒸散及其辐射项的波动小于空气动力学项 ,气候因子对潜在蒸散量影响力大小依次为平均气温、平均风速、相对湿度、日照时数、降水 ,其中平均气温是显著影响潜在蒸散、辐射项与空气动力项的共同因子.

英文摘要：

To study climate change characteristics impact on potential evapotranspiration in south typical small watershed of red soil sloping farmland ,we use wavelet analysis ,Mann-Kendall non-parametric test method and Penman-Monteith method to calculate and analyze the trends ,period and mutation characteristics of the mean temperature and precipitation series of small watershed during 1953 -2013 as well as the variation characteristics of potential evapotranspiration during 1990-2013 ,the situation is affected by me-teorological factors .The result shows that nearly 60 a average temperature and precipitation of small watershed assumes upward trend ,among which the average temperature varies significantly .The changes of precipitation have 4 ,11 ,22 ,29 a primary cycle . The average temperature mutated in 1994 ,and mutations in precipitation are in 1988 ,2003 ,2010 .The evapotranspiration during 1990-2013 shows slight upward trend and the evapotranspiration in late rainy season is greater than the early rainy season ,the muta-tion occurs in 2011 .The volatility of potential evapotranspiration and radiation items less than aerodynamic items ,the order of the meteorological factors influence on potential evapotranspiration is average temperature ,average wind speed ,relative humidity ,sun-shine hours ,precipitation ,and average temperature is the same factor which significantly affected potential evapotranspiration ,to-gether with radiation items and aerodynamics items .