基于欧洲中尺度天气预报中心的再分析数据,对青藏高原的地表温度近36年(1979—2014)来的时空变化特征进行了分析,结果显示,青藏高原地表温度整体上呈现出东高西低的分布,柴达木盆地的温度明显高于周边地区。高原地表温度的整体变化有一个约3a的震荡周期,与大气可降水量的变化规律一致。高原大部分地区的升温率都在0.01℃/a以上,昆仑山、喜马拉雅山、柴达木盆地和巴彦克拉山的大部分地区升温率在0.03℃/a以上,为同期世界平均水平的3倍以上。4个季节的升温趋势并不一致,从大到小依次为春季、冬季、夏季、秋季,最高升温率为0.1℃/a,出现在春季,最低为-0.06℃/a,出现在夏季。帕米尔高原局部地区在春、夏、冬3季均出现了降温现象。
By using reanalysis data of ECMWF (European Centrer for Medium Range Weather Forecasts), this paper analyzed the spatial variation and temporal laws of surface temperature in Tibetan Plateau from 1979- 2014. Results show that the surface temperature over Tibetan Plateau is in- creasing in the recent 36 years(1979--2014), and a 3 a oscil-lation period was found by the spectral analysis. In addition, the result of regressive analysis shows that surface temperature of most parts of the Tibetan Plateau was increasing sig- nificantly by a rate higher than 0.01℃/a, especially in the Kunlun mountain, Himalayas and Qaidam Basin whose in- creasing rate is higher than 0. 03℃/a. The trends of in- creasing rate in four seasons were inconsistent. From big to small, they were Spring, Winter, Summer, and Autumn. In Spring, the highest increasing rate is 0.1℃/a. In Summer, the lowest is -0.06℃/a.