中文摘要：

干线协调控制需要了解交通量在干线上下游的传递和变化关系,传统的行程时间预测或到达分布预测无法提供足够的参考信息.根据干线的道路条件,界定干线上若干个关键断面；统计实际的车辆检测数据或仿真实验数据,按较小的时间间隔汇总和统计不同周期在对应间隔内的到达分布,绘制得到关键断面的到车率分布图.分析路段离散和信号控制对到车率分布的影响；以车速的累积概率分布图为基础计算转移矩阵,提出了考虑路段离散的到车率分布预测方法；分析红灯排队、绿灯放行的车流离散过程,提出了考虑信号控制的到车率预测方法.仿真案例分析表明,预测的到车率分布相对误差较小,验证了预测方法的有效性.

英文摘要：

Coordinated control on arterial need to know about the relationship of transmission and change in the upstream and downstream on arterial. The traditional prediction of travel time or arrival distribution does not provide sufficient reference. According to the road conditions, some critical sections on arterial are defined. The arrival flow profile on critical sections are drawn by collecting actual vehicle detection data or simulation experiment data and the statistics of the arrival distribution at different periods corresponding to the intervals by time step. The impact of arrival flow profile by segment dispersion and signal control is analyzed. On the basis of the speed cumulative probability distribution,transition matrix is calculated, and the prediction method of arrival flow profile considering segment dispersion is proposed. Based on an analysis of the traffic dispersion process on green and the queuing on red, the prediction method of arrival flow profile considering signal control is proposed. Simulation studies show that the relative error of the predicted arrival flow profile is smaller, which validates the prediction methods,