中文摘要：

1960年代以来,由于人类活动与气候变化的综合影响,使抚河流域地表水文过程发生显著变化.基于此,本文在趋势分析的基础上,以1960~1970年为基准期,利用流域水文模拟程序（hydrological simulation program-fortran,HSPF）定量分析了1971~1980年、1981~1990年、1991~2000年、2001~2005年4个时段该流域气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响.结果表明：1）1960年以来,抚河流域气温显著变化,而降水、径流深、径流系数等无显著变化;2）相对于基准期1960~1970年,1971~1980年、1981~1990年、1991~2000年、2001~2005年气候变化导致径流量平均增加24.25亿m3,而人类活动则导致径流量平均减少18.62亿m3;气候变化对径流的影响在1970年代和2000年代处于较低水平,在1980年代和1990年代处于较高水平;人类活动对径流的影响,在1970年代处于一个较低水平,而1980年代以后明显增大;3）在气候变化影响因素中,流域降水量是主要影响因子;人类活动影响因素包括土地利用方式的变化以及水利工程的修建;抚河流域下游修建的水利工程是人类活动影响因素中的重要影响因子.

英文摘要：

Influenced by human activities and climate change,the upper hydrologic process has changed significantly in Fuhe River basin.Thus,based on the trend analysis,we defined 1960-1970as＂baseline period＂,and analyzed the impacts of climate change and human activities on hydrological processes quantitatively between 1971-1980,1981-1990,1991-2000and2001-2005 periods,using the hydrological simulation program-fortran（HSPF）.Results indicate that：1）there is a significant trend in average temperature,but no significant trend in annual precipitation,runoff depth or runoff coefficient since 1960;2）climate change has increased the annual runoff by 2.425 billion m3/10 aon average for 1971-1980,1981-1990,1991-2000,2001-2005,compared with baseline period 1960~1970;human activities,however,decreased the annual runoff by-1.862 billion m3/10 aon average for the same periods.The impacts of climate change on annual runoff kept on a low level in 1970 s and 2000 sbut a high level in 1980 sand 1990s,while the impacts of human activities on annual runoff stayed on a lowlevel in 1970 syet a high level since then;3）among the factors of climate change,precipitation is the main one;human activities include changes of land use type and construction of water project;the water project in the lower reaches of Fuhe River plays an important role among human activities.