本文基于分保偏好和风险组合冲击研究了我国保险市场系统性风险的传染性问题。研究发现,从保险业务风险传染的视角,境内外的再保险公司具有系统重要性,分出保费占比较高的小型直接保险公司和部分再保险公司具有系统脆弱性;相对于完全分散市场。偏好市场系统性风险传染性门槛降低、传染性增强;双重冲击所导致的风险传染深度和广度要大于单一冲击,信息不对称条件下的趋同性、恐慌预期和负反馈等因素导致的“退保潮”和“续保难”造成的流动性冲击需要高度重视。
Based on reinsurance preference and risk profile shock, this paper studies the contagion problem of systemicrisk in non-life insurance market. We find that reinsurance companies in and out the boundary are systemicallyimportant, and the small size insurance companies and part of the reinsurance companies which have much morepremium ceded are systemic vulnerability. Compared to completely diversified market, preference market has lowcontagion threshold and strong infectiousness. The risk contagion breadth and depth of double shock are more than singleshock, so it is important to take more attention on liquidity risk from information asymmetry which may be lead tosurrender tide or some other negative effects.