中文摘要：

粮食问题是关系生态脆弱区发展的关键问题。在耕地面积有限、城市化加速、人口增长和生态保护急需加强的背景下，人均粮食的区域差异和驱动力研究对生态脆弱区生态安全具有重要意义。县级行政区是粮食生产和消费的基本单元，县域人均粮食变化的机制对于生态脆弱区发展至关重要。以南水北调中线水源区37个县为研究单位，借助ESDA和GWR模型，揭示南水北调中线水源区人均粮食区域差异的空间异质性及变化的驱动力。结果表明：2000～2011年，研究区县域人均粮食空间白相关特征明显，区域人均粮食变化的驱动因素呈现非均衡联动的局域性特征，单位面积产量对人均粮食变化的影响最大，耕地面积变动是第二大影响因素，都呈正相关。影响因素具有明显的平原向山区、亚热带向暖温带过渡的特征。因此，应结合南水北调中线水源区当前人均粮食的现状和驱动因子的效应机理，积极采取相应的有效措施，保障其粮食安全，促进区域生态保护。生态脆弱区自然生态环境复杂，在社会经济发展决策时，要充分考虑小尺度地理单元的特性，才能保证脆弱的生态环境能持续发展。

英文摘要：

Food supply is a key problem in ecologically sensitive region .It determines the healthy development of ecologically sensitive region.The regional difference of per capita grain possession is very important for re- gional food security in the situation of limited arable land and rapid urbanization, especially in ecologically sensitive region o The county administrative is the basic unit of food production and consumption. Mechanism of per capita grain change is vital to the development of the ecological fragile areas. Taking 37 counties as sam- piing units in 2000-2011 in water source area of for the middle route of South-to-north Water Transfer Project, using the methods of ESDA and geographically weighted regression （GWR） model, the article presents spatial heterogeneity of per capita grain possession and driving factors according to difference in natural conditions and economic development types. The results showed that per capita grain possession shows a strong trend of spatial natural correlation. The similar areas cluster in space. As gross output of grain increases, per capita grain possession has limited room for growth. The county-level of internal per capita grain possession spatial disparities have been gradually narrowed. LISA cluster map demonstrated that counties with higher per capita grain possession gathered in Hanjiang Valley and intermountain Daba Mountains Basin, while counties with lower per capita grain possession gathered in the area of Funiu Mountain. The driving factors of different re- gions show localization characteristic of no-stationary intercourse. The effect of change of per unit area produc- tion to variation of per capita grain possession is the largest. The secondary factor is changes of cultivated land contributing to variation of per capita grain possession. These coefficient estimations are all positive. Factors of influence have obviously transitional characters from subtropical to warm temperate and plain area to moun- tain area. The coefficients estimation of change of