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中文摘要：
随着原油对外依存度的提高,我国的成品油价格受国际油价的潜在影响也逐步增大.为了平衡油价高企对国内各方面的影响,2009年我国推出了新的成品油定价机制,以期在一定程度上能够与国际原油价格接轨.使用Granger因果关系分析、ECM等计量经济学方法,对我国成品油价格特征及其与国际原油市场的互动关系进行定量分析,进而探讨2009年定价机制改革的效果.研究结果表明国际原油价格是国内成品油价格的Granger原因,二者之间存在长期的协整关系,但在现有的定价机制下,短期内国际原油价格的波动难以影响到国内成品油价格.现有的定价机制并没有有效地提升国内成品油价格与国际原油价格的接轨程度.
英文摘要：
With the increasing interdependency on crude oil,the potential impacts of the volatility of international crude oil price on the domestic sale price of refined oil product in China increase step by step.In order to balance these impacts on the interests of all parties, the NDRC establish the new pricing mechanism in 2009.Using Granger causality test and ECM,the paper analyzes the relationship of crude oil price and petroleum products＇ price quantitatively and the effectiveness of the pricing mechanism.The results indicate that the price of crude oil and petroleum products are coordinate in long term.While in short term the volatility of international crude oil price can not affect the domestic sale price of refined oil product.The existing pricing mechanism does not effectively enhance the convergence of domestic refined oil prices and international crude oil prices.
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