中文摘要：

针对传感网环境监测应用采集的时间序列数据,提出了一种新的基于高斯过程模型的多步预测方法,实现了对未来时刻的环境监测数据的预测。高斯过程模型通过核函数描述数据的特性,通过对环境监测数据的经验模态分解,以及对其内在物理特性的分析,构建了针对环境监测数据的高斯过程核函数,实现了对数据变化模式的描述。在基于3个数据集的5个种类、20 000多个环境监测数据上进行了性能对比实验,结果表明,与对比预测方法相比,提出的高斯过程多步预测方法对未来时刻的环境监测数据的平均预测精度可以提高20%,可以应用于环境参数未来趋势分析、异常环境事件预警等场景。

英文摘要：

For time series data collected from WSN environmental monitoring applications, a novel multi-step prediction method based on Gaussian process model was proposed. The method could make prediction for future environmental monitoring data. Kernel functions were used to describe data properties in the Gaussian process model. Kernel functions for environmental monitoring data were constructed through the EMD（empirical mode decomposition） technique and analysis of data inherent physical properties. And the constructed kernel functions were capable of describing the data change mode. Extensive experiments for multi-step prediction performance comparison test were performed on three kinds of data sets using over 20 000 environmental monitoring data records. Experimental results show that the average prediction accuracy of the Gaussian process multi-step prediction method can be increased by 20% than compared prediction methods. The prediction method can be applied to future environmental parameters trend analysis, early warning for abnormal environmental events and other scenes.