从"资源诅咒"的技术进步传导机制入手,实证分析"资源诅咒"发生的条件。一是构造一个三部门的内生经济增长模型,包含资源部门、制造业部门和科技研发部门,发现处于不同发展规模阶段的资源产业对技术进步的影响不同。二是通过固定效应模型和门槛面板模型证实中国省际层面上存在"资源诅咒"现象,即丰富的自然资源抑制技术进步,从而给经济发展带来负面影响。三是在此基础上将资源依存度指标设定为门槛变量,构建三重门槛模型。回归结果发现,资源部门发展的初期对技术进步具有显著的促进作用,即存在"资源福音"效应,当资源产业规模扩张到一定程度后,"资源诅咒"现象开始出现。三重门槛模型较好地阐述了资源由"福音"向"诅咒"转变的规律。
This paper summarizes transmission mechanism of technology progress in "resource curse", and makes an empirical analysis of its occurring conditions. Firstly, the paper constructs a economic growth model of three departments, including resource department, manufacturing department and R&D department, and has found that the technology progress is different in different stages of development of resources industry. Secondly, the fixed effect panel threshold model is used to confirm the existence of the "resource curse" phenomenon in provincial level of China, that is, rich natural resources inhibits technological progress, which brings the negative influence on the economic development. Thirdly, on the basis of resource abundance index of segmentation, and the establishment of the three threshold model. The regression result indicates that the initial resources development has significant effect on technology progress, there is a "resource Gospel" effect, when the resource industry scale expansion reaches a certain extent, the "resource curse" phenomenon begins to appear. The three threshold model well describes the resources from the "Gospel" to "the curse" transformation.