中美两国在全球价值链中占有举足轻重的地位,两国对气候变化的态度和行动也是全球减排成败的关键,本文构建了多区域投入产出(MRIO)模型,从"隐含碳贸易"视角核算比较全球价值链下的中美利益,并从最终需求结构层面分析产生这一结果的主要原因。结果表明:2011年中国对美国隐含碳出口为476.62百万吨(Mt),占中国碳排放量的5.67%,而美国对中国隐含碳出口为51.84Mt,仅占美国碳排放量的0.99%,这一不平衡造成的结果是"美国消费、中国污染"。此外,中美两国的隐含碳出口结构有众多相似之处,但中国对美隐含碳出口行业集中度过高。商品贸易量并非是决定中美隐含碳贸易额的主要因素,其主要原因在于各行业碳排放系数的差异及其在全球价值链中位置的差异。因此,中美两国在贸易和气候变化方面应该遵循"创新、协调、绿色、开放、共享"的五大发展理念,从需求侧和供给侧共同努力,减少全球温室气体排放。
China and the United States play important role in global value chain(GVC) and climate change. By constructing a multi-regional input-output(MRIO) model, we not only calculate and compare the benefits of China and the US in GVC from the perspective of trade in CO2 emissions(Ti CO2), but also analyze the main causes from the perspective of final demand structure. The results show that China' s CO2 emissions(Ei CO2) exports to the United States were 476.62 million tons(Mt) in 2011, accounting for 5.67% of China's carbon emissions, while the United States' Ei CO2 to China were 51.84 Mt, only accounting for 0.99% of the United States' CO2 emissions. The result implies the imbalance of "the United States consumption, China pollution ". In addition,there are many similarities in the structure of Ei CO2 in China and the US, but China's Ei CO2 has higher industry concentration. Trade volume is not the main factor to determine China-US' Ti CO2, the main determinants are carbon emission coefficient and their positions in GVC. Therefore, China and the US should adhere to five development ideas in foreign trade and climate change, including innovation, coordination, green development, opening up and sharing. China and the US should work together from both the demand and the supply side to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.