运用Kaplan-Meier乘积一极限估计方法和COX比例风险模型对中国1999—2008年新成立的63万个企业样本进行了实证检验。通过从不同维度对出口是否延长企业生存时间进行比较分析,结果发现:(1)出口可以有效降低企业失败风险,显著地提高企业生存概率,延长企业寿命;(2)不同行业、地区、所有制类型的企业,其出口行为对企业生存状况的影响均存在较大差异;(3)影响企业寿命的因素十分广泛,中国企业的生存状况在受到西方传统产业组织理论中企业规模、盈利能力、融资能力、所在行业和地域的影响外,还受到由中国特殊国情所决定的所有制性质和成立时间的影响。
Using Kaplan-Meier product-limit estimation method and COX proportional hazard model, this paper empirically testes the failure rates of China's newly established 633589 enterprises in the year of 1999-2008. From different latitudes, we make an comparative analysis whether export extends enterprises' sur- vival time, and find that : (1) export can effectively reduce the failure risk of enterprises, and significantly improve the survival probability; (2) industries, regions and ownership types of enterprises play an impor- tant role on the influence of export on enterprise survival~ (3) the influence factors of enterprise life are extensive, furthermore Chinese enterprises' survival condition is affected by the enterprise scale, profit- ability, financing ability, the industry and the area in western traditional industrial organization theory, also by the ownership and the established time which are decided by Chinese special national condition.