中文摘要：

根据若羌绿洲从1996年到2008年的土地利用统计数据以及相关社会经济资料，分析其土地利用变化趋势及其驱动力。结合研究区的实际情况，利用SPSS软件，通过建立多元回归模型，揭示土地利用结构空间分布及其变化与人文因子的定量关系，从中筛选出影响土地类型和结构变动的主导人文驱动因子，建立主要土地变化驱动模型。同时，运用非线型回归模型对2015年、2020年和2025年若羌绿洲8种用地类型面积进行预测，试图揭示该县土地利用未来走向，并为实现土地合理利用、土地资源优化配置提供决策依据。

英文摘要：

Based on statistical and survey data, this paper discusses the trend of land use change and its driving forces in Qakilik oasis, combining with the research area＇ s actual situation, in virtue of SPSS （ Statistical Package for the Social Science） software, the quantitative relationship between the spatial distributing and change of land-use structure ＆ the relative human factors is clearly displayed, and the primary human driving factors which acted on the structure change of land-use is also screened out, the main land utilization type of the driving influence model is established. In the same time,the authors forecast the change trend of different eight land-use type of Qakilik oasis in 2015,2020,2025 years, aiming at supplying some useful reference for central and local government in sustainable land use and optimization of disposition of land resources.