中文摘要：

技术分析方法是否有效以及有效的前提一直是中国金融市场领域中一个富于争议性的议题。本文收集并整理了1997-2010年我国股票市场上出现的346次股价长期横盘形态（矩形形态）,利用Logit模型检验了技术交易规则在中国市场上的有效性,并在实证中引入了持股集中度等影响技术交易规则有效性的重要因素,同时发现存在其他的约束条件如横盘前价格波动方向、平均股价等对横盘后方向突破选择有着密切的相关关系,并给出矩形形态下的投资建议。

英文摘要：

The effectiveness of technical analysis methods has always been one controversial issue in Chinese financial market.This paper collects 346 rectangular shapes in Chinese stock market during 1997 to 2010,using the Logit model to test the effectiveness of technology trading rules.The paper also introduces some important factors,such as the concentration ratio of stock into the empirical tests,finding that these constraints have strong influences on the stock price.Last but not least,based on these results,we give some investment advices.