中文摘要：

粮食主产区的耕地面积变化不仅影响到区域可持续发展，更关系到国家的粮食安全。本文利用50年的耕地统计数据和近年的土地利用详查变更数据，揭示了安徽省沿江地区土地利用结构和耕地面积变化的总体特征，并对耕地面积变化的主要驱动因子进行了分析，在定量分析耕地数量变化和经济发展关系的基础上，对未来耕地数量和粮食生产安全保障进行了预测。结果表明：①沿江地区土地利用基本特征表现为以农用地为主，工矿用地和未利用土地比例大；土地的投入强度大。综合产出率高；耕地面积持续减少。耕地总量经历了缓慢增长、快速下降、缓慢减少、急剧减少的变化过程，人均耕地面积持续减少；②耕地总面积减少与GDP总量和人均GDP之间存在对数关系，二者间的弹性系数不断下降，现状已接近上海市水平，表明经济发展模式已开始向集约型转变；③利用拟合的关系式，估算2010年和2020年的耕地将在现状基础上分别减少3.09×10^4～3.91×10^4hm^2和5．07×10^4～6，78×10^4hm^2届时耕地总面积将会保持在149×10^4hm^2和146×10^4hm^2以上。2010年耕地数量可以满足粮食安全的需要（保持粮食产量占到全国总产量的3．08％），至2020年．耕地数量将会略低于粮食安全的需求。

英文摘要：

In general, the change of cultivated land not only the sustainable development of the region, area in the major grain production regions influences but also the national food security. The area of the Yangtze River basin in Anhui Province is a major food bowl and also an economic powerhouse. Based on the statistical data over the past 50 years and detailed investigation of land use during the recent years the author analyzed the characteristics of the structure of land use and the changes of cultivated land, as well as the driving forces of the changes. The author made predictions on the change of area of cultivated land and its effects on the national food security in 2010 and 2020 on the basis of correlation analysis between cultivated land change and economic development. It is concluded that： 1 ） the proportion of cultivated land, industrial-use land and unexploited land in the study area is higher, featuring intensive input and high output and the percentage of cultivated land to the total area decreases continuously, especially in recent years. The area of cultivated land per capita decreases continuously; 2） The area of cultivated land has a logarithmic relation with the increase of GDP or GDP per capita, and the elastic coefficient continuously decreases, which is approximate to that of Shanghai. It imply the change toward an intensive mode of economic development; 3） Using the logarithmic function, the author predicts that there will be a decrease of 2.34×10^4～ 2.97×10^4hm^2 of cultivated land by 2010 and 4.96×104～6.00×10^4hm^2 by 2020. The total area of cultivated land will be about 151×10^4hm^2 in 2010 and 148×10^4hm^2 in 2020. The area of cultivated land in 2010 can ensure the demand of national food security, but the area of cultivated land in 2020 will be a little lower than the demand.