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中文摘要：
为了准确描述电力系统中不确定因素对静态电压稳定分析的影响，掌握负荷裕度或临界功率的概率分布信息，确定某一负荷水平下电压失稳的概率，提出了基于随机响应面方法的电压稳定概率评估方法。用随机响应面法将概率分析问题转化为确定性的非线性规划问题，然后采用内点法求解。电压稳定概率评估模型中考虑了并网风电场输出功率的随机性和负荷的不确定性，并利用正交变换技术处理风电场间风速相关性，分析了风速相关性对临界功率概率分布的影响。IEEE118和IEEE300节点系统计算结果表明，与蒙特卡罗方法相比，该方法在保持较高计算精度的同时，需要较少量的采样。
英文摘要：
In order to accurately describe the influence of the random factors in power systems on the voltage stability, to obtain the probability distribution of load margin or critical active power, and to determine the probability of voltage instability under a certain load level, a probabilistic evaluation method of voltage stability based on a stochastic response surface method was proposed. The stochastic response surface method was applied to transform the problem of probability evaluations to the deterministic problem, and the interior point method was applied to solve the deterministic problem. The randomness of the wind farms out powers and the uncertainty of loads were considered in the model. This paper used the orthogonal transformation technique to deal with the correlated wind speed of different wind farms, and analyzed the correlation of wind speed effects on the critical power probability assessment. The comparison of the calculation results of the stochastic response surface method and the Monte Carlo method on IEEE 118-bus and 300-bus systems indicate that, the stochastic response surface method requires smaller amount of computation and keeps high accuracy.
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