中文摘要：

本文分析了2020年碳排放强度下降目标下中国面临的减排形势，在此基础上，基于动态CGE模型构建了中国能源-环境-经济模型，模拟了能源利用效率提高和能源结构替代的减排效果及其对实现减排目标的贡献。分析结果表明，发展低碳技术．推动能源利用效率提高和能源结构转换，可以实现减排目标的64％-81％。国际技术合作是中国加快发展低碳技术．推动能源技术进步的重要途径。日本等发达国家面临着巨大减排压力和高昂减排成本，也存在着向发展中国家寻找减排市场的需求。有效利用CDM机制．发展以技术换排放的国际技术合作．对于发达国家和发展中国家可以达到双赢的结果。

英文摘要：

This paper preliminarily calculates China＇s pressure to cut its emissions under 2020 carbon intensity target which was announced by the Chinese government at the end of last year. And then we use a dynamic energy-environment-economic CGE model to simulate the impact of rising energy use efficiency to emission reduction based on the SAM table of 2007, and estimate the mitigation potential of energy structure change. The results show that, rising energy use efficiency and changing energy structure can contribute 64%-81% to the 2020 carbon intensity target realization. This paper indicates international technology cooperation is an important way for technological progress, and further regards Japan as an example to demonstrate the advantages and feasibility of technology cooperation between China and Japan.