中文摘要：

城镇化与制造业结构升级存在产业关联和资源配置竞争。协调推进城镇化和制造业结构升级，迫切需要识别两者的互动关系。不同于以往的研究思路，本文在对房地产投资、高技术产业投资进行挤入挤出理论分析的基础上，提出了城镇化与制造业产业结构的互动概念框架。基于此，本文采用联立方程实证策略，利用我国2002-2012年面板数据，运用3SLS方法展开分析。研究发现：土地偏向的城镇化进程中，房地产投资对高技术产业投资产生明显挤出效应，对传统产业产生了微弱挤入效应，城镇化对制造业升级有抑制作用；东部地区与全国整体情况一致，而中西部地区的房地产投资对传统产业投资也产生了挤出效应；以高技术投资表征的制造业结构升级微弱地促进了城镇化进程。

英文摘要：

There are industrial relations and resource allocation competition between urbanization and upgrading of the manufacturing industry. In order to promote urbanization and upgrade of the manufacturing structure, it is urgent to identify the interaction between the two. Different from previous research, this paper bases on the theoretical analysis of crowding out effect of real estate investment and high-tech industry investment, puts forward the interactive conceptual framework of urbanization and manufacturing indus- try structure. Then the empirical method of simultaneous equations is used to analyze the panel data from 2002 to 2012. It is found that： the real estate investment has obvious crowding-out effect on the investment of high-tech industry, and has a weak crowding-out effect on the traditional industry, and the urbanization has an inhibitory effect on the upgrading of manufacturing industry; Different from eastern region, in central and western regions, investment of real estate has a crowding-in effect on the traditional industry. The upgrading of the structure of manufacturing industry which is characterized by high technology investment promotes the process of urbanization