中文摘要：

在分析广州市近20年来耕地、人口和粮食动态变化的基础上,采用最小人均耕地面积和耕地压力指数模型对其1995—2015年的粮食安全状况进行分析,并运用线性模型和三点滑动平均法对未来五年的耕地数量、人口数量和粮食总产量进行预测。研究表明：1995—2015年广州市耕地面积和粮食总产量都不断减少,且在最小人均耕地面积持续减少的情况下,耕地压力指数始终大于1且继续上升,表明过去20年广州市耕地资源流失情况严重,粮食供需矛盾突出和粮食安全形势严峻。未来五年广州市耕地面积和人均耕地面积将继续减少,人口数量进一步增加,虽粮食总产量发展趋势较为平稳,但人均粮食占有量却将继续减少,粮食安全问题依然严峻。据此提出提高粮食单产水平、严格执行耕地保护制度、合理控制人口增长和多渠道进行粮食储备的对策。

英文摘要：

Based on the analysis of the dynamic changes in cultivated land, population and food production in recent 20 years in Guangzhou, this paper analyzed the food security situation in 1995--2015 by using the minimum area of cultivated land per capita and cultivated land pressure index model and predicted the amount of cultivated land, population, and total grain output in the next five years by using the linear model and three -point moving average method.The results showed that cultivated land area and the total grain output were de- creasing, and that even though the minimum area of cultivated land per capita was reducing, the cultivated land pressure index remained higher than 1 and kept rising in the 1995-2015 period.It also showed that cultivated land had decreased sharply, that the contradiction between grain supply and demand had been obvious, and that its food security situation had been grim over the past 20 years. Cultivated and per capita cultivated land area will continue to decrease while population will keep growing in the next five years.Ahhough grain output will witness smooth growth, the per capita occupancy of grain will decline, indicating that food security will re- main a serious issue.Finally,some measures were put forward on how to raise per unit area yield of grain,im- plement the protection system of cultivated land, control population growth, and reserve food through different channels.